Compounding Reference
The arithmetic, the Rule of 72, and the two things that actually move the answer.
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Your figures
- Starting amount
- Rate
- Years
- Compounded
- GROWS TO
- Interest earned
- Same at simple interest
- Years to double
Try a few — change ONE thing per row
| Start | Rate | Years | Compounding | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The arithmetic
- Compound
- P x (1 + r/n) ^ (n x years)
- Simple
- P x (1 + r x years)
- r — DEFINE IT FIRST
- the rate as a DECIMAL — 7% is 0.07, not 7
- n
- compounding periods per year
- Doubling time
- ln(2) / (n x ln(1 + r/n)), with r as a decimal
- Rule of 72
- 72 / rate — close between about 5% and 12%
- Not included
- contributions, tax, inflation, fees
What actually moves the answer
- 1st — Time
- the only input that compounds on itself
- 2nd — Rate
- large, and the one people over-estimate
- 3rd — Starting amount
- linear — twice the start is twice the end
- Barely — Frequency
- annual to daily is a few percent, total
- ⚠ Inflation
- subtract it from the rate for today's money
Before trusting a projection
- Rate justified, not hoped for - use the lower figure if unsure
- Inflation subtracted if you want the answer in today's money
- Tax considered unless the account is sheltered
- Fees subtracted from the rate - a 1% fee is 1% off your return
- Contributions handled separately - this is a lump sum
- Longer timelines re-checked, because errors compound too
- The simple-interest column read as well as the compound one
Time beats rate, and both beat frequency
The single most useful thing this sheet shows is the ORDER. Years matter most because time is the only input that compounds on itself. Rate matters a great deal and is the one people inflate. Compounding frequency is nearly irrelevant — annual to daily is worth a few percent in total, and it is the thing most often advertised.
Optimism compounds too
Assuming 10% instead of 7% roughly doubles a thirty-year projection. That is not a small over-estimate — it is a plan that fails quietly, and late, at the point where there is no time left to correct it. Use a rate you can defend.