Raid Lockout Drop Planner
Track how many weekly clears you need to reach 50% and 90% odds of at least one drop.
BFCBrilliance · bfcbrilliance.com/tools/raid-lockout-calculator
Raid setup
- Date
- Raid or item
- Drop chance per clear (%)
- Clears allowed per week
Tool constants
- 50% target probability
- 50%
- 90% target probability
- 90%
- Probability formula
- 1 - (1 - p)^n
- Week conversion
- total clears ÷ clears per week
- Assumption
- Each clear is independent
Fill in your farming plan
| Target | Total clears needed | Weeks needed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
Before you trust the result
- Use the per-clear drop chance, not the per-week chance.
- Count only clears that can actually award the item.
- Round up to whole weeks when planning resets.
Common mistake
Players often think a 10% drop rate means 'one every 10 clears.' The real question is how many clears it takes to reach a chosen confidence level, and weekly lockouts make that a time problem, not just an attempt-count problem.